EDMONTON, Alberta — For decades, Alberta separatism remained on the political margins. Now, voters in the oil-rich Canadian province are deciding whether to take the first step toward a future referendum on independence.
The nonbinding referendum vote on Monday is the first time the province has put the question of separation to a public vote, in what Elections Alberta has described as the largest electoral event in the province's history.
Polls indicate that Alberta voters will overwhelmingly reject the option of beginning the legal process toward a referendum on separation.
Pollsters generally estimate that about one in five Albertans support separation from Canada. But the vote has brought the question of Alberta's place in the Canadian federation to the forefront of public debate.
The questions on the ballot
Essentially, this is a referendum about whether to hold another referendum on separation.
There are 10 questions in total. The first nine address immigration, access to provincial services such as health care, education and other social services, and potential changes to the Canadian Constitution. Voters can answer yes or no to each of these questions.
Question 10 offers voters two options. Option 1 asks whether Alberta should remain part of Canada, while option 2 asks whether the province should begin the legal process toward holding a referendum on separation.
Western alienation and grievances against Ottawa date back decades, including to the administrations of Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau, Justin Trudeau's father, during the 1970s and 1980s.
"I feel the Canadian system is broken. I know we aren't living in hell on earth. But it's the trajectory we're worried about and where things are going," says Cory Morgan.
Morgan founded the Alberta Independence Party in 2000 and is also the founder of Pathway to Independence, a third-party advertising group that advocates for an independent Alberta.
"Even if we don't get over the line on Monday, I would hope that some people understand that something large is brewing here and if we don't get some change, it's going to continue to grow," Morgan told NPR.
Support for separation intensified among some Albertans following COVID-19 lockdowns and vaccine mandates. Premier Danielle Smith said in May that it was "time to have a vote, understand the will of Albertans on this subject, and move on."
The referendum campaign brought Prime Minister Mark Carney back to his hometown of Edmonton on Friday, where he urged Albertans to keep their province in Canada ahead of the vote.
"A vote against Canada is a dangerous bluff that will lead to years of deep uncertainty and lost opportunities for Albertans and Canadians," Carney told the rally.
What's at stake?
Alberta is one of Canada's wealthiest provinces and is home to the world's fourth-largest known oil reserves. The province contributes to Canada's equalization system, which provides federal funding to provinces with lower fiscal capacity. Some Albertans argue that the province should retain more of its revenue rather than see funds redistributed elsewhere in the country.
"We want to make a new country where we can stop sending our money 1,000 kilometers away in Ottawa," says Jeremy Clive, a 23-year-old pilot and university student from rural Alberta.
Leaving the Canadian federation would not be as simple as holding a referendum.
"It requires negotiating your way out," says Jared Wesley, a political scientist at the University of Alberta. "The Supreme Court has stated clearly that in order to leave, a province must negotiate with nine other provinces and the federal government to secure an amendment to the Constitution to remove themselves."
In 1995, Quebec held a referendum on sovereignty that narrowly rejected independence. The vote helped set the stage for Canada's Clarity Act, which Parliament passed in 2000.
The act states that secession negotiations can begin only after a referendum question and its result meet standards of clarity. It does not specify a fixed percentage that constitutes a clear majority. Any separation would also require constitutional negotiations involving provincial and federal governments.
"It's a bit ironic that separatists are a bit frustrated with the inability to change the constitution and they are using that as a pretext to leave, but, in order to leave, they need to change the same constitution with a much higher threshold for agreement," says Wesley.
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What happens if Albertans vote for a separation Referendum?
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has said she will respect the result and begin the process of holding a legally binding referendum, subject to the applicable legal requirements. That would not happen immediately.
The province would also need to consult with First Nations. Treaties between First Nations and the Crown predate Canadian Confederation, and First Nations groups have objected to the idea of an independent Alberta.
In May, an Alberta court ruled that a separatist petition seeking to trigger the referendum violated Indigenous rights because the province had failed to consult First Nations. The province has appealed the decision.
The economic cost of Alberta independence
A government-commissioned report by the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy estimated that separating Alberta from Canada could cost as much as $170 billion Canadian dollars over five years. The report examined two scenarios involving a relatively smooth transition.
Under both scenarios, Alberta's debt would rise substantially as the province assumed a share of Canada's federal debt. The report projected that costs could range from $324 billion to $442.3 billion Canadian dollars.
An independent Alberta would also face billions of dollars in additional interest payments compared with what it currently pays as part of Canada.
Thomas Lukaszak, founder of Forever Canadian, a pro-unity movement, and a former deputy premier of Alberta, has spent 18 months campaigning across the province for Alberta to remain in Canada. He points to Quebec's 1995 referendum as a warning about the potential economic effects of separation.
"Several hundred thousand Canadians moved out of the province of Quebec and moved to other provinces," says Lukaszak. "And until today, the province of Quebec hasn't recovered economically from that because industry and investment has left Montreal and I'm fearing that the same thing would happen to the province of Alberta."
When will the referendum results be available?
According to Elections Alberta, unofficial results for referendums with this many questions will be posted 48 hours after polls close. Recruiting enough staff for the vote has been a challenge, and Elections Alberta staff are expected to work around the clock to tally the results.
"This story won't end once the ballots are counted," says Wesley.
The referendum has highlighted deep divisions among Albertans. The question of separation is likely to remain prominent in the lead-up to the provincial election next year.
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