What some forecasters are calling a Super El Niño may be headed to the Central and South Coasts, bringing with it the potential for heavy rain.
But some weather experts say it’s too soon to tell.
"There are some indications that an El Niño, which is a relaxation in the trade winds and a redistribution of heat in the tropics of the Pacific Ocean, is starting to develop," said Bill Patzert, one of the world’s leading climatologists. He was a researcher at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory for more than three decades.
"It's way too early to call it 'super' at this point. People are nostalgic for the great El Niño of 1997-98, which brought so much rain. There is a hyperventilation thinking about another wet, wet winter."
"Right now, we're not even looking at the ocean temperatures yet," added Patzert.
Ocean temperatures are key indicators of La Niña and El Niño activity.
"What you need is a relaxation in the trade winds to redistribute the heat in the tropics and the tropical Pacific," Patzert continued. "That has started. We're seeing the beginnings of an El Niño. We don't see it in the ocean temperatures yet. But, over the next two to three months, if this relaxation in the trade winds continues, there is a really nice possibility of a strong, maybe even a super El Niño. But, it's too early to call."
The climatologist says we could use an El Niño. The current rainfall season started with above-average precipitation for most Central and South Coast communities from October through December. Seasonal rainfall totals are still on track to finish well above average. But after the first of the year, it seemed like Mother Nature turned off the spigot.
"There are some troubling trends. There is no doubt we're living in a warming world," said Patzert. "Most of that warming is being experienced in the oceans. The oceans essentially capture 95% of the excess heat from the atmosphere due to global warming or global heating. Consequently, what we've seen with the snowpack season, the snow in California starts later and ends earlier. We're having a compressed winter snowpack season and a longer dry season."
Patzert added that while some reservoirs in our region, especially on the Central Coast, did well, others did not. Some of the major water sources the state relies on are having a terrible season.
"Just think about where we get much of our water from," Patzert explained. "One of the most important sources is the Sierra snowpack. It builds up during the winter, gradually melts, and supplies us with water through the spring, summer, and into the fall. But this year, we're experiencing a record-breaking snow drought. There's almost no snow in the Sierras and the Rockies. That's not only influencing our flow on the Sacramento and San Joaquin (Rivers), but also the Colorado (River), where we get much of our water. And, the Colorado River is in dire straits."
What could a strong El Niño do for the region? During the 1997-98 El Niño season, Ventura had 39” of rain, Ojai 49”, and Santa Barbara 46”. The totals were more than double the seasonal averages.
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center puts a 61% chance of El Niño conditions developing from May to July.
Despite all the media excitement, Patzert said it will be a few more months before we can accurately tell what will happen.
"After two years of La Niña, and I like to call La Niña 'the Diva of drought,' there are some signs that it's flipping now," said the researcher. "But again, it's too early to call."
Patzert also pointed out that even if a strong El Niño happens, it probably won’t help us this year. It usually has the strongest influence in late winter and spring, during the period January through March.
