Tariffs. Massive federal spending cuts. Tax cuts. It’s a tumultuous time for America’s financial markets, and even some of the nation's leading experts say it’s hard to predict what’s next.
"I imagine we're going to be on a rollercoaster for the next several years. You look at the stock market right now, and actually, it's quite high, by all historical measures. But, there's this real disconnect between a lot of the surveys, the CEO's, and other things talking about a remarkable amount of confidence on one end, and yet, by what we're seeing in the headlines every day around tariffs, around taxes, there's a huge amount of uncertainty, " said Andrew Ross Sorkin.
He's a financial journalist who’s considered to be one of America’s leading experts on what’s happening in the world of high finance, from Wall Street to corporate boardrooms. He’s speaking at UC Santa Barbara this weekend. "Uncertainty is typically the enemy of business. It's typically the enemy of stock prices going higher."
Sorkin says there are a lot of contradictory messages right now about the state of the markets.
"There's this chasm if you will that's very hard to explain right now, which is again this idea that you do hear from business leaders perceived to have a remarkable amount of confidence, and yet they look at those headlines, and I think some of them have their heart sinking," said Sorkin. "Now, it may very well be once we get through the next several months of whatever you think the tariff debate is, the other big hurdle is going to be tax policy in America."
Sorkin writes a column for the New York Times, and co-anchors CNBC’s daily financial show Squawk Box. He’s author of the New York Times best seller Too Big To Fail: How Wall Street, and Washington Fought To Save The Financial System-And Themselves. The movie was adapted into an HBO film which received 11 Emmy Nominations. And, Sorkin is co-creator of the Showtime series Billions, the award winning drama set in the world of hedge funds.
Sorkin says questions about tariffs and tax cuts have many corporate leaders reluctant to make major moves at this time.
"When President Trump was elected in November, there was this euphoria in the stock market," said Sorkin. "There was a sense that there would be all kinds of investment being made, regulations were going to come off, mergers and acquisitions were going to be unleashed. You go back and you look at January, and the truth is mergers and acquisitions were at a low. Why? Because nobody knows what the tariffs situation is going to look like. Nobody knows what the tax situation is going to look like. Everybody is sort of sitting on their hands."
Sorkin is known for helping to break down what’s happening in corporate America, and the markets into ways that’s relatable to those of us wondering how events might affect our 401k's. "In a way, I'm always trying to tell the story so that if I'm sitting at the table with my mother and father, or even my kids these days we can talk about it," said Sorkin.
The journalist's next project is an examination of the 1929 stock market crash which led to the Great Depression. "I like to think I'm writing the prequel to Too Big To Fail, and hopefully, there will be no reason to write a sequel. My hope is to actually bring people back into the world of 1929, which was the most infamous market crash we have ever gone through as a country."
He feels the story of what happened nearly a century ago has a lot of relevance today.
Sorkin says he’s heartened to see more people are improving their financial literacy, noting that things like bitcoin and crypto have created interest among young people in the financial world.
Andrew Ross Sorkin will speak at UC Santa Barbara Saturday night. The UCSB Arts and Lectures event is at 7:30 p.m., in Campbell Hall.
