Dawn Dyer owns a company in Ventura County which helps build homes. But, she said these days, getting projects from the idea stage to competition isn’t easy.
"It's becoming more and more difficult for people to develop new housing opportunities in Ventura County, more costly, with more risk," said Dyer.
Dyer says factors like inflation and high interest rates have derailed a number of housing projects.
"We've got projects that started the process six or seven years ago, and then when they get ready to actually break ground, they can't afford to build because it's taken them so long to get to that point. Nobody could forecast for what it was going to actually cost to create that housing. Projects that started with really good intentions years ago, by the time they get ready to break ground, they do their numbers and realize they are going to have to sell the homes, or rent the units at prices that are well beyond what Ventura residents can afford."
That’s not a surprising story for Dr. Matthew Fienup. He’s Executive Director of California Lutheran University’s Center for Economic Research and Forecasting. The center just released a news analysis of Ventura County's economy.
"I would say the picture is a little worse than no growth," said Fienup. ""We're seeing sustained population declines since 2016, we're seeing sustained decline in the labor force with the number of people who live in Ventura County and actually have a job. We're seeing a continued net outflow of people...younger, lower and middle income people folks primarly seeing opportunities somewhere else."
He said the county’s total economic activity has declined for nine of the past 16 years. And, since 2005, the county’s population has dropped by more than 100,000 people. Fineup said one of the major problems is high housing prices.
"The average median home price over the last 12 months was $924,000. If you just use conventional suggestions that 30% of gross income should go towards housing, to afford today's median home you need a household income of $360,000. Not only are there very few households in Ventura County that have those kids of incomes, there's only one sector out of a dozen that have jobs with salaries even coming close, so that it means it's out of reach for everyone else in the county," said Fienup.
Fienup said the housing crisis has hit some of the county’s main economic drivers, like biotech. He said that high housing prices have driven away prospective employees, prompting many of the companies to move some of their operations elsewhere. The economist said the biotech sectory is down about $20 billion dollars from its peak in 2007.
He said the county’s agricultural industry has slumped in recent years.
"For many, many of our young people, there just isn't an opportunity for them to put down roots in the community where they were born and raised," said Dyer, who is the owner of Dyer Sheehan Group. "It's heartbreaking."
Dyer said her Ventura-based housing development consulting business has had to look elsewhere for projects, because there isn't enough business happening in the county.
Hundreds of people were on hand for the Center for Economic Research and Forecasting’s 2025 Ventura County Forecast Event Thursday in Thousand Oaks. What they heard from experts was that policy changes are needed. They said the open space land use restrictions passed by voters two decades ago have stalled new home construction, which is needed to ease the county’s affordable housing crisis.
"The promise that was made back in 1998 to 2000 when the measures were being implemented was that we were going to focus on infill development," said Fienup. "That largely hasn't happened, and even people who supported SOAR were the very same people who show up to protest infill development, and the increase in traffic that might result. At the same time, infill development...it now is evident that it isn't sufficent. We actually need to expand growth boundaries, and so that means there needs to be change."
Looking at home prices and incomes, The National Association of Realtors ranks Ventura County as the second least affordable major metropolitan area in the nation. Fineup said the housing crisis is what’s fueling the county’s continuing economic weakness, and drop in population.
But, he’s optimistic that over time, the county can fix the problem. He says part of it means people need to be supportive of adding housing in existing communities, and also be willing to allow more projects in areas currently out of bounds for homes.
That many not be easy, because in many cases voter approval is needed to approve new developments in land protected by the SOAR measures.
