The NBA Finals are making big news in the sports world this week.
The first NBA title for the Boston Celtics since 2008 might surprise some fans, but not a Cal Poly San Luis Obispo economist. He says the analytics point towards Boston’s strength on the court.
"They're very efficient, shooting the three. That is the most efficient shot, and they['ve build a bunch of players around the perimeter that shoot threes. From the numbers perspective, Boston is clear and away the best team this year," said Joseph Kuehn. He's an Associate Professor of Economics at Cal Poly’s Orfalea College of Business.
Kuehn developed a formula which he thinks can bring a more scientific approach to developing a winning team.
It’s like idea used by some in baseball, which was highlighted in the 2011 hit movie “Moneyball,” starring Brad Pitt. You use statistics to figure out what players fit together best for a team, and how best to use them. "It's the same idea. I was interested in what makes NBA basketball different from baseball," said Kuehn. "It's a much more team oriented sport, so then, how to we measure player value?"
Kuehn says there are obviously star players, and their value is clear. But, he says analytics can help figure out how you build a team around them to be successful. He said it's about find players who can complement each others play on the court. He breaks down play into specific actions, and builds up from that.
Kuehn says the Lakers are an interesting example. They have LeBron James and some other stars, but have struggled to put all the pieces together to click as a team.
"Players like LeBron...we don't need analytics to tell us they are good. But, in order to win a championship, you need the little pieces that are going to work well with a player like Lebron," said the economist. In other words, you want players which compliment and support the superstar's play.
The economist’s approach to building an NBA team is getting attention. It was featured on ESPN, he’s been talked about sports journalism websites, and has done consulting on players for teams.
He’s also doing some studies on the NBA, including one looking at why the Western Conference has been consistently better for the last two decades than the Eastern Conference.
Who does he think the team is to watch next season? He believes it's the Orlando Magic. Kuehn said they're building a solid team which has the interconnecting pieces to be a big winner.
