We could see one of the rarest of rare events in California during the next few days, one which could bring parts of the Tri-Counties heavy rain.
California could be hit by a tropical storm.
"This is an active time of year for the eastern Pacific in terms of hurricanes, and tropical storms. It's just very rare for the forecast to have one come up this far along up the coast, and inland across Southern California," said Rich Thompson, who is a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard.
Tropical Storm Hillary became a full fledged hurricane Thursday, with winds topping 120 miles an hour. By Friday, it was a Category 4 hurricane with winds reaching 145 miles an hour.
Thompson says if it continues to move northwest, it could bring heavy rain to parts of our region late Sunday into Monday. But, he says it all depends on whether it stays on the current path.
"If you are following along, and you see the forecast changing, it's because of changes in the track of the system. A difference in the track of say 1500 miles can have great impacts on the forecast for all of Southern California," he said.
It’s currently south of Baja California. It’s expected to reach the Baja Peninsula Saturday night, and could bring up to 10” of rain to that part of Mexico. Because of colder ocean water as it continues to move north, it will weaken. But, for the first time in decades, there still could be enough of it left to be a tropical storm as it reaches us in California.
"As it keeps moving northward, it's going to get over colder and colder water, which will eventually help the storm dissipate. It still looks like it could come onshore in the San Diego area as a weak tropical storm," said Thompson.
Thompson said if that happened, it would be a very rare event. "Only one time in the 20th century did a tropical storm make it across Southern California, and that was in September of 1939, in San Diego."
There's never been a recorded instance of a full-fledged hurricane hitting Southern California.
As the meteorologist mentioned, the key to how much rainfall we get depends on the track of the hurricane. As it stands now, the parts of the Tri-Counties south of Point Conception could see significant rainfall.
Ventura County could potentially get 2 to 4 inches of rain, with possible dangerous flooding. There could be street and underpass flooding.
Southern Santa Barbara County won't get as much rain, but there is also the potential for flooding in mountain areas.
Thompson says the bottom line is you want to stay tuned in to the news over the weekend, so you are up-to-date in changes in the hurricane track, and what they may mean for rainfall in our region.
