Meteorologists can predict the weather for specific areas. Now, some UC Santa Barbara researchers are hoping to do the same thing with Great White sharks.
"Cloudy, with a chance of White sharks...exactly!" said UC Santa Barbara researcher Douglas McCauley.
We’re standing on Santa Barbara County’s Padaro Beach with McCauley, and some members of his Benioff Ocean Lab team. They are studying Great Whites. They’re trying to learn more about their lives, and to develop a way to forecast their movement.
"The sort of holy grail of the research is to build a shark forecast model, sort of like we have a forecast for weather," said McCauley. "We're trying to do the same thing, but for sharks. So, on any given day, if you are coming down to the beach, you want to know what the weather's like, what the waves are doing, and what the sharks are doing."
The team uses drones to help spot Great Whites off the beach.
UCSB researcher Samantha Mladjov is a drone pilot.
As one of the lab's drones drone hovers off the coastline, Mladjov said the Great Whites are easy for her to spot near the surface.
"The dark body of the shark is a pretty good contrast to the color of the water," said the researcher. "I could fly at 100 meters and be able to spot a shark. And you can spot all sorts of things...dolphins...sea lions...seals." If she spots a Great White, she'll drop the drone down to about 20 meters above the water for better observation.
McCauley explained why they focused the research on Padaro Beach, which is just off of Highway 101 between Carpinteria and Summerland. This section of the coast is a hot spot for the sharks, and also for beachgoers.
He said thanks to environmental protections in recent years, Great Whites are thriving. He notes that on a good summer day, they might spot 10 to 15 Great Whites in this area of the coast.
The researcher emphasizes that due to their portrayl in the media, through movies like "Jaws," Great Whites get a bad rap. He said they aren't interested in in interacting with people, much less attacking them.
McCauley points to the fact while Great Whites frequent Padaro Beach, which is also very popular with beachgoers, the sharks leave people alone and go about their business.
The researchers are combining visual observations with AI to help translate drone video into shark movement information. The information gathered from the drones is combined with data gathered by underwater shark tags and sensors with the Cal State Long Beach Shark Lab. The idea is to turn this into a forecast model for where the sharks will be next, in effect a shark-cast, like a weathercast.
There are two main objectives with the project. The researchers want to develop the shark forecast model, and also to learn more the lives of Great Whites.
The team just published a paper with some of its findings. The researchers say unlike adults, baby great whites prefer warm water, so they like to hang out near the surface. According to the sudy, Great Whites also like warmer water along the surf line, and prefer to spend time near the surface in late afternoons, when the water is warmest.
McCauley said they are hoping to develop an accurate shark forecast model for Padaro Beach, which could then be broadened for global use.
With foggy conditions, we didn't see any Great Whites on this particular day.
Down the road, he said we could see automated drones patrolling for Great Whites, with AI interpreting the data and sending forecasts.
The idea is that the information could help you figure out if it’s a better day for volleyball than swimming at a beach, if the forecast turns out to be sunny, with a good chance of shark.
You can follow the research, and track forecasts for sharks at Padaro Beach at Sharkeye. You can sign up to automatically receive texts about sightings.
